Radical Change of Course - Boko Haram Strategy

Attacked by the Nigerian army (their 'training' provided by the USA) and coordinated attacks by the multinational force drawn from Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger. Boko Haram is currently suffering big losses

Given the advance of the joint armies of the neighboring countries and the Nigerian army, continue fighting to gain ground and conquer villages will not work. Fighting at this time would mean the end of Boko Haram.

When terrorist suffer big losses or loss of territory, it frees resources for asymmetrical terrorist attacks

Alert! - Constant onslaught - Mass (suicide) attacks 

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Recently intercepted communications indicate a radical change of course in Boko Haram's strategy and extends its Scope.

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Threat inside Nigeria - country wide mass (suicide | bombing) attacks aimed to force the Nigerian army to make concessions and a two-state solution a la Sudan. Because of all the bombings, the population will grumble and demand a solution from the authorities.

Threat outside Nigeria - also mass attacks in the capital cities of the neighboring countries Benin, Cameroon, Chad and Niger. Again with the objective to incite the population to appeal to their governments that it is not their war and that they are victims of those bombings by Boko Haram because of the interference of their country in a foreign conflict.

In the coming period it is one attack after another both in Nigeria as well as its neighboring countries and no more conquering of territory.

An obviously well organized Boko Haram, the most secretive of current terror groups and movements, will invoke the resources of international Counter Terrorism Units and Intelligence Services to a maximum!

We have to acknowledge the differences between the activities of local/regional terror groups and their global movements with wide presence in the west. The global movements of these insurgencies and terror groups, work independent and are often led and created by university (students and) graduated or practising, MD's, and engineers. This is where freedom of speech, civil rights, recruitment via social media plays a big role and they communicate with the movements of other groups (in the Middle East).

Boko Haram has supporters among Nigerians and transnational crime networks in the Diaspora. A "movement" was developed in cooperation with Al Qaeda controlled ex-pats in Europe. Reinforced by veterans of the Jihad and Nigerians that were or still are fighting in the Middle East.

We have already seen ISIS target US and European sources through cyber-attacks

Have we?

Do not qualify the actions that ISIS has conducted as a cyber attack. To disrupt a single site or a targeted twitter account is no big deal. A definition of cyber attacks is to disrupt the electricity Grid, airport systems, whole banking operations or Nuclear installations. Actions that causes harm to the enemy and its eco system.

Until now, none of the above can be executed by the 3 groups, who should be qualified as guerilla war organisations with very well organized and funded operations that causes mass casualties under a population and armed forces. Their main target is to gain land and cities by fighting, suicide bombs and explosion campaigns. If there target would be 'terror' then they would have targeted commercial airlines, which are despite all security measures taken, still soft targets.