It "seems" no one knows who is and where Boko Haram (led by Shekau) has a presence because there are very few "reliable primary sources" for their strategy, resources, and allies.
The minimal information that is available since 2009, when the new Boko Haram was annexed and since then purged by Al Qaeda, is repeated by 'subject matter experts' and by 'analysts' mixed with the history of Boko Haram and Nigeria from before 2009. The available analysis focused on the possible African links with AQIM, Janjaweed, and Al Shabaab or limited to the local actions of Boko Haram in (the North East of) Nigeria and Ansaru the self-appointed (and denied by Shekau). A splinter faction, partner, or offshoot of Boko Haram. All irrelevant if we wish to stop or disrupt the inevitable (regional) international attacks and a guarantee for security forces and policymakers to ignore their ignorance.
The synergy in the nexus of cross border organized crime, ideology, and terrorism is defining the opportunities, scope, and size of terrorist organizations and attacks. Therefore comparing Boko Haram with other terrorist organizations like AQIM and Al Shabaab starts flawed because of the size of Nigeria's population, Diaspora, and the global presence of its organized crime.
It is targeting Europe and US (assets) by activating its presence in the Diaspora.
From 2013, Al Qaeda strategized Boko Haram and al Shabaab. Steadily building the capabilities in the Nigerian and Somali Diaspora.
International funding and support for Boko Haram are well hidden in fraud cells of Nigerian Transnational Organized Crime. These days, about the only place on earth without (419) Nigerian fraud cells is Antarctica - for now, anyway. - Read more at Ultrascan-AGI: Nigerian (419) Organized Crime with Skyrocketing Profits in the US, UK, and Canada are funding Nigerian Politicians, Movements and Terrorism groups
Africa is a Key Continent for The Al Qaeda Terror Network as a large center of 'recruitment,' and Terror acts toward the west are increasingly planned from Africa and executed by Africans.
Similar to other Al Qaeda affiliates, the scope of the threat by Boko Haram lies in Nigeria's population and its large Diaspora. Al Qaeda favors the Muslim community of Nigeria because it already is disenfranchised, marginalized, and estranged from its (Christian led) government.
Long term, Al Qaeda has a dualistic and holistic strategy for development and deployment. It purged and took control of Al Shabaab and Boko Haram.
It induced the 'Al Qaeda Strategic Value Pyramid,' including best practices and cost efficiency for international attacks by combining the services of independent providers to attain its goals. It trades support, resources, or action with cross border criminal organizations. read more: Africa is a Key Continent for The Al Qaeda Terror Network
Boko Haram must be considered the most advanced, well prepared, disciplined, and solid financed terror organization in 50 years. Very effective because many incorporated lessons learned during the decades of Al Qaeda. - Read more: The Definite Guide To Boko Haram
While, what is supposed to be far away from local or regional problems, international efforts and analysis are focused on the boomerang effect of foreigners attempting to join AQ affiliates because they could become a threat when returning.
Boko Haram is utilizing its foreign support being a sophisticated ally of Al Qaeda, and efforts should also be designed to raise awareness of the threat Boko Haram poses to/in the European Union and the United States.
In two video communications, Boko Haram's current leader Shekau designated international targets and specifically announced attacks on US soil.
In a diversified threat environment where multiple Al Qaeda affiliates are taking advantage of security gaps, Nigerian criminal networks throughout the world position Boko Haram in the frontline of Al Qaeda, and we must anticipate this threat.
The support in the Nigerian Diaspora, organized crime, primary and secondary funding in and from the EU, US and the Middle East, are crucial to a threat.
Read more: BOKO HARAM Emerging Threat to the U.S. Homeland - Subcommittee US Congres
The bond al Qaeda - Fulani
In recent decades Al Qaeda created a relationship with the semi-nomad Fulani by often depending on them for logistics. The Fulani, one of the largest ethnic groups in the Sahel and West Africa, is almost exclusively Muslim. National unity is the biggest challenge in Nigeria; in 2009, Al Qaeda started to groom Fulani to alienate them and disrupt the national federation of Nigeria. (H)
Nigeria designated Al Qaeda headquarters
Boko Haram is the most advanced, well prepared, disciplined, and robust financed terror organization in 50 years.
A decade of sustained "presence and fear" established Boko Haram as a reliable affiliate of al Qaeda.
Al Qaeda rewarded in 2019 the Boko Haram leadership by assigning members, with decades of experience dating back to the '90s in Yemen and Sudan
In consultation with Bola Tinubu, the Kano state Governor Ganduje dethroned Emir Sanusi II over disrespect to the lawful authorities. (H)
Ongoing AML investigations revealed local and foreign financial support via Qatar and structural support via Turkey. (H) (T)
In 2019 Al Qaeda honored Boko Haram by assigning members with decades of experience dating back to the '90s in Yemen and Sudan. (H) (T)
National unity is the biggest challenge in Nigeria
Issues of sovereignty and nationalism
In Africa, tribal identity politics come into play based on the survival of tribes. Instead of economic gain, ideology provides a moral reason for people who are fighting or give up resources to the fight.
The African agenda
Because of the heightened sense of urgency after the 9/11 terrorist attacks, not only the intelligence services but also mission strategists of al Qaeda's were interested in "the African agenda" of the Bush administration. (H) (ULTRASCAN HUMINT) The group was alerted in September 2008 when the then-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice paid a visit to Tripoli, Libya, and met with Qaddafi (Gaddafi). Weapons, mercenaries trained by Libya stoke regional conflicts funded with Libya's gold bullion.
Al Qaeda has silently invested significantly into building an ideological base in weak African and Asian communities.
Building a social structure and capacity for impoverished communities with free education, medical and food aid.
Its support and presence trough affiliates in Africa and Asia has since 2009 quadrupled. Its main targets still are Africa's 'Magnificent 5' ; Uganda, Kenya. Tanzania, Rwanda and Burundi
The war against the ISIS caliphate has degraded ISIS's possibilities to keep territory in Syria and Iraq.
When terror groups are forced out and no longer fight for territory, that frees resources to expand and widen their scope on the globe.
ISIS is expanding its fighting and training in Africa and Asia
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