2021 INTELLIGENCE WARS
GAME ON 

The Four Deep Cycle Security Issues, a Perfect Storm. Pandemics, Climate Change, Cyber Security, Economic Crisis

The collection of subjects in this document are copy-pastes derived from intelligence gathering on behalf of Anti Money Laundering (AML) investigations where fraud is used to obfuscate perpetrators and financial crime.

For two decades, we've heard how irrelevant HUMINT has become.

Why do we need secret agents? Isn't it all rather quaint?
Is it that we see a different, more frightening world than you do?
Our enemies are no longer nations and do not exist on a map but are non-state actors and unknown individuals. Look around you, who do you fear? Can you see a face, a uniform, a flag? No.
Yet, before breakfast in their pajamas, they can do more damage from their laptops than an intelligence agent can during a year in the field. Online organized crime doesn't know law and order, has a Wild West mentality, and is lawless to the core. Anarchy.
While transparency became fashionable in the West, the World is not more transparent now. Today it's more opaque, in the shadows, and that's where we do battle. So, before you declare that irrelevant, ask yourselves, how safe do you feel?
 



A context of intelligence operations


Since 2007 the intelligence services prepared for a significant shift in real US geo-policy, military power, and intelligence.




An essential part of that shift, leaving war zones and decreasing its military presence in partner countries, occurs. It is explicitly cutting off Iran, Pakistan, and Israel. Allocated financial DoD resources show that what remains are substantial special operations (US-SOCOM) [..] a prioritized global monitor function facilitated by US Space Force. [..] 

Active counterintelligence subjects

There is a positive bias within the intelligence services towards business with the usual suspects Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, and Venezuela. [..] at the same time facilitating the wealthy to evade taxes and flee draconian financial control by their governments.
In the past decade, the services facilitated significant deals with (family, friends, and) business associates of the leadership, e.g., Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin [..] Under US presidents Bush and Obama, the US continued selling and transferring (military) technology. E.g., ground-to-air defense systems and (supersonic nuclear) missile technology. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED
  
The Baltic states - The reincorporation into the Russian sphere
Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania had been part of the Russian Empire since the end of the 18th century, but after the Russian Revolution of 1917, they became independent states. The Russian narrative - The reincorporation of the Baltic states into the Russian sphere, Lithuania in 2021
Lithuania
Lithuanian armed forces are responsible for air policing, providing the necessary host nation support for NATO allies in the Baltics.
China's intelligence services look for Lithuanian targets on LinkedIn
Chinese intelligence uses LinkedIn to establish contacts with selected targets abroad in the early stages of recruitment operations. Typical targets are civil servants. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED
Russian hackers exploit Lithuanian infrastructure
Hacker groups linked to Russian intelligence conducted cyber-attacks last year against top Lithuanian officials and decision-makers and used the Baltic nation's technology infrastructure as a base to hit targets elsewhere. "To carry out attacks by APT29 against foreign entities developing a COVID-19 vaccine." a report by Lithuania's intelligence service said.
Russian intelligence operations pose a significant threat to Lithuania's national security. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED
Portable tactical non-nuclear EMPs
- During the period September 16 - 30, 2020 - Ongoing Intelligence, AML operations, surveillance, and counter-surveillance of travel patterns, revealed criminal funding for disguised transports of portable tactical (non-nuclear) EMPs from Belarus via the Lithuanian port of Klaipėda into Germany.

The use of EMPs can foil technology, communication, and travel (even locally). On top of the coronavirus threat, hampered mobility and communications can cause uncharted space for the public. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED
A nuclear disaster in Belarus would render Lithuania uninhabitable.
The twin cooling towers of the facility, financed by Moscow and built by the Russian state company Rosatom, are visible from Vilnius, the Lithuanian capital. Its proximity raises severe concerns among Belarus' neighbors, especially Lithuania, which also believes the Kremlin may use the reactor's large capacity to maintain the Baltic states' energy dependence on Moscow.
The Astravets power plant draws water for its cooling reactors from the Neris River, which also supplies drinking water in Lithuania and joins river Neman as two main waterways crossing Lithuania into the Baltic Sea. 

Belarus

Belarus President Lukashenko is a minion of Russia (military intelligence).
Befitting the Russian narrative - The reincorporation of Lithuania into the Russian sphere in 2021 will push NATO. That is the same NATO intelligence services that prevent Russia from invading the Baltics. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED
Via Belarus, Russia arranged for the transport of a supersonic tactical nuclear missile to Turkey. Such a missile was used on the Beirut harbor(august 4, 2020). Claiming it has similar missiles, Turkey forced Armenia to back out of the conflict with Azerbaijan on the Caucasus. More recently, also Greece thought it wise to be less aggressive in its disputes with Turkey. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED


Iran
In 2015 the intelligence services focused on Iranian business in the EU. Infiltration operations during 2016, through companies in Iran, revealed specific money-laundering methods and facilitators. It led in 2017 to a global anti-money laundering effort. The services shared bits of information with law enforcement, which facilitated arrests, prosecutions, and evictions. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED
In 2016 and 2017, the intelligence services facilitated significant business between Iran and (family, friends, and) business associates of the Chinese leadership, e.g., Xi Jinping. The improved trade relations between the two countries started exponentially and included a significant (military) technology exchange.

China
In recent years the intelligence projects covering Chinese subjects intensified. Initial AML investigations revealed money laundering techniques to hide beneficiaries of significant real estate investments in western Europe. These projects are deep cycle, disclose AML information about Chinese business networks to task a risk mitigation service. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED

China has been at war for years with the deluded USA deploying diplomacy
Except for President Trump, nobody noticed that the Chinese art of war is to subdue the USA without fighting (General Sun Tzu). According to their values, China is in a real military battle with the USA for many years. In its pursuit of world domination, China is right on track, silently breaking the USA's economic, thus military strength without putting up a fight.

Trade war against unfair practices and biowarfare
In February 2018, President Trump began setting tariffs and other trade barriers on China to force it to make changes to "unfair trade practices." Countering the Chinese strategy with a commercial trade war. To further subdue the USA, China chose for biowarfare. The invisible coronavirus established "presence and fear" by killing at random. The impact is life-changing, economically devastating. Forcing the government to focus on the local crisis and paying no attention to china's military preparations.


China's military scope and PMC deployment

In the past decade, China aligned its military scope with its Silk Route Belt and Road Initiative. But today, they pay Erik Prince to provide security for supply chains in Africa and train PLA soldiers in the art of being a private military contractor. That way, the actual Red Army didn't have to go into remote areas to protect the billions worth of strategic investments. A yet unsuspected reason for bringing tens of thousands of experienced special operation troops to sovereign nations worldwide.

While the U.S. is misguided and still deploying diplomacy, China is at war and ready to (blitz) target U.S. military and diplomatic posts, expats, friendlies, and assets in Africa and Asia.

Foreign military presence, PMC's, terrorism proxies, and war

Even though the million-dollar funding for humanitarian, peace, counter-terrorism and training missions are justified on the front page, the leading assessment is that international military presence, PMC's, and terrorism proxies are part of regional economic battles for minerals. A presumption by economists that people fight wars over scarce resources.

War is built on emotion - Primarily fought for ugly personal reasons of leaders - Facts are white noise (PDF 2020 07 23) 

Russia
Russian organized crime is unceasing intense, spying and stealing high-value from local businesses and divisions of foreign companies.
Russia is counting on the COVID-19 pandemic to weaken the West, which helps Moscow gain a prominent role in international affairs and declining Western influence on the global stage

2019, the EU intelligence services target Russian activities linked to local political (right and left-wing) extremists. [..] The services recently added anarchist funding. [..] 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED

Russia's less obvious spy activities are outsourced, for example, to Angolan, Sudanese, and other (criminal and intelligence) networks loyal to the Russian intelligence services. The research discovered (illegal) money streams from Angolans to associates of the Russian and Brazilian leadership. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED

A typical integrity risk
Russian conglomerates, similar to those Financial Industrial Groups like Gazprom. Typically a Russian government interest in cooperation, knowledge center, and distribution.
The money laundering technique is known as crisscross, which transfers from A, B to B, C, D, E crisscrossing accounts.
All bank accounts and companies are crisscrossing international (tax) jurisdictions, often from inside one branch of the same bank, so every single transfer seems normal. Still, the ultimate beneficiaries are the same.

France

Extremism

In its efforts to contain Muslim Extremism, France mobilized resources to critical countries for the Al-Qaida terror network, profiling itself as a prime target with an increased focus of the Al Qaeda network.

Gaullist political party

During 2020, Ideological left and right-wing extremist activities in France edged the political influence of the French military towards a new version of a Gaullist party. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED


In its efforts to contain Muslim Extremism, France mobilized resources to critical countries for the Al-Qaida terror network, profiling itself as a prime target with an increased focus of the Al Qaeda network.

The Four Deep Cycle Security Issues, a Perfect Storm



"If we refuse to do business with villains, we'd have almost no one to trade with"

Pandemics

A good virus keeps the carrier alive.

The pharmaceutical industry predicted and preferred a long pandemic that extends into a widespread endemic disease with a stable number of infected people. For governments, the coronavirus pandemic is primarily a matter of communication strategy.

The government's implausible measures are derived from advice by national scientists that answer relevant questions with "we don't know" and use an internationally standardized fear-based narrative supported with predictive models filled with erroneous statistical data.

The urgency of reaching herd immunity leads to the argument that individuals have a civic duty or moral obligation to get vaccinated, driving a wedge in the population.

A good vaccine keeps mutations alive.

Vaccine failures

- Vaccine refusal may put the holy grail of infectious disease herd immunity at risk. In theory, if not enough people take the vaccine, COVID-19 could stick around indefinitely. But these antigen-specific vaccines are not similar to those used during successful mass vaccination campaigns in the past decades and, per definition, can not achieve herd immunity. The vaccinated breed highly infectious variants

 - Mass vaccination led to a steep decline in the numbers of infected, after which at least fifteen highly infective mutant variants (will) cause a steep rise. The antigen-specific antibodies induced by the vaccine will keep binding with new variants without neutralizing capacity. Thus, competing with natural antibodies and suppressing the innate immune system leads to more potent virus variants potentially infecting (young) people who were not affected by the original virus. New variants create the need for other antigen-specific vaccines.

Virus agenda is morphing with climate crisis narrative.

The virus plans are slowly morphing to the climate agenda. Vaccine passports are called a "Green Pass," "Green Certificate," and government spokespersons about the vaccine tell the public to come forward for the vaccine because "our offer is evergreen."

Climate Change Crisis

Global warming and climate change impact everyone's food and water security - Issues caused by human activity and population growth.

Drinking-Water the World Most Precious Resource

Water and water supply are strategic resources. When a dam is creating a drought or cutting down trees washes water and soil out to sea, some people act surprised and blame global warming for water shortage, while a growing number of people are spending half their paycheck just to get clean water.

Cyber Security Failures – a confidence illusion

For Big Tech IT to overlook massive security breaches for which they are virtually single-handedly responsible demonstrates a reckless disregard of severe threats. But to ignore evidence and consistently, almost obstinately, shifting the responsibility for a hack attack to foreign state actors is a real threat to global security. Simultaneously, criminals thrive, and dangerous innovations emerge because the responsible party does not take all necessary steps to contain sensitive information, a threat to democracy.

Infrastructure and supply chain targets - a cyber Pearl Harbor

Insider threat

These security gaps are also made possible by the large (American) soft and hardware companies, their associates, and foreign staff. For legal and financial reasons, programming is outsourced to American contractors outside the US with access to high-value security flaws. For example, most US contractors in Ireland with a DNI-CIA-NSA security clearance also recruited, e.g., Chinese, Russian, and East European programmers that appeared to have ulterior motives.

Criminal ransomware an instrument of war

Ransomware attacks, which include extortion and data theft, are popular among cybercriminals. Their goal is to extort money, but increasingly, the result is a disrupted national or international supply chain, making it an act of war.

Economic Crisis

A mix of looming dangers and implausible government countermeasures causes economic devastation, forcing populations to become financially dependent on the state. An economically depressed world is moving individuals and communities to develop localized, improvised solutions to a growing number of problems. The undermining of financial systems, democracy, and trust in government institutions are instruments of a war to control populations.

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Global Fear narratives are commerce and military-driven



To sustain or reduce life on earth

Some say the main problems are caused by the unchecked growth of the global population (1920 2 billion - 2022 8 billion). The reality is that most wish to solve the issues by (re-)dividing resources more innovative to sustain the population's life. Others want to reduce (growth of) the number of lives on earth.

Both groups have invested in solving fundamental problems linked to, Climate, Pandemic, Cyberattacks, and the Economy. They invested significantly in Sattelites, Communications, Supply chains, Infrastructure, Nanotech, Biotech, Robotics, and Quantum technology (for data analysis).

Full-spectrum supranational control, the nuclear family or both
Criminal behavior surges. Movements are rising, violent protests, extremist agendas, false narratives, and idiotic policies drive (an American) collapse.
Because "paper-pushers and politicians are too spineless and corrupt to do what needs to be done," an alliance of global leaders predictably pushes "to put the power where it should be." Their vision of a full-spectrum supranational satellite and robot control system eliminates threats and mitigates risks by tracking location and limiting human behavior. Not a good feeling being watched, is it?
2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED

Measures are generating poverty and marginality
We are all witnesses. The correlations between the dissolution of the nuclear family and the current collapse of societies are apparent.
Freedoms are limited. The contradictory messaging and inconsistent opinionated media removed credibility. More authoritarian leadership and privacy loss receive strong criticism by democracy advocates. Populations respond poorly to failing, and there are protests and reclamation of rights.

People are reminded they have a will, agency, and the ability to act. Things will worsen, private citizens will believe that there are some things worse than death, and radical uprisings will come from everyday people who are sick of tyranny.

Never in the history of the World have we been able to identify good and evil as we can now. The philosophy is control, greed, evil. Offer an alternative. People are sick of the fear narratives. The issue is becoming laziness. Too many people prefer to exchange freedom for a government paycheck.
To sustain or reduce life on earth

      
The nuclear family is in our DNA.



The nuclear family is the best pattern for sustainable societies, poverty reduction, identity, etc. Thousands of years history isn't wrong. Family = identity = strong individuals = strong community = nations.

There is no government program, policy, or ideology that can hope to achieve what a family can. Family is in our DNA. Everything the UN sets out to achieve can only occur through the strong support of the nuclear family.

Heritage-based powers

Heritage-based powers, Royals, Monarchies, the institutions are targeted to break. Diminish their power, public acceptance, and connections to the financial system. Supported by insiders, primarily channeled through media and the courts, attacks emphasize the difference in rewards and justice. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED

The Qatar financial disconnect

2016 - During a meeting, an intelligence services director shared concerns about serious adverse effects for the European financial sector caused by future international developments concerning Qatar. In particular, for [..] They tasked a service to induce circumstances that convince bank executives to disconnect from Qatar-owned financial services and entities linked to Qatari in general. [..] 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED



Fraud Drives Funding Jihad
 

Terrorism Nexus Organized Crime

Fraud shifted from a criminal-inspired activity into an ideology-driven terror funding

Intercepted communications instigated intelligence surveillance since July 2009.

2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED

Criminal fraud funding terrorism (not limited to):

- money laundering between Europe and South Africa,

- forgery of official government documents,

- Nigerian 419 advance fee fraud, scamming people around the globe via the Nigerian Diaspora,

- trade in airline tickets paid for with organized credit card fraud in the Somali Diaspora,

- drugs trafficking from Mexico to Nigeria, Morocco, Spain/Europe, and South Africa,

- assisted by a Sheikh in the UAE, the arms trade with Al Shabaab and the Muslim Janjaweed rebel group from Sudan,

- human trafficking, and high-end prostitution of fashion models,

Significant cases funding terrorism:

Travelex and Wirecard facilitated money laundering with prepaid payment cards.

Finablr - Security and AML at all three companies did not exist. Travelex paid 2.3 million when hacked with ransomware. Wirecard payment processor and financial services provider (The largest heists in modern times) infiltrated by people with ulterior motives facilitated €1.9B fraud and money laundering with card services and money transfers for extremists and fighters. The management of Wirecard were money-laundering fraudsters funding insurgencies in, e.g., Syria, Egypt, Libya, Burkina Faso, and Mauritania.

International fraud chains have stolen billions of euro's from European taxpayers by committing fraud with trading CO2 certificates and VAT fraud.

With total revenue of about $3 billion per year, the Taliban remain the World's most significant criminal military and geopolitical power - Taliban Global Revenues Money Laundering

The management of Karatbars (fraud, human trafficking, and prostitution) is funding Private Military Companies (PMC) and terrorism in and via Mauritania.

"Skyrocketing Profits of Nigerian 419 Advance Fee Fraud organizations in the US, UK, and Canada are funding Nigerian Politicians, Movements and Terrorism groups."

Well-organized Nigerian fraud rings known for this size, and the international scope of organized fraud "siphoned $36B in fraudulent unemployment payments from the US" - Advance Fee Imposter Fraud – and interference in the US elections. Funding terrorism and arms trade in, e.g., Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Somalia, DRC,

Hushpuppi busted in $431M cyber scam - Nigerian BEC, romance scams, and other AFF frauds perpetrated from Lagos and Dubai. Victims of online romance scams funding the deadly Nigerian terror group

Shisha - the return of the tobacco companies facilitating and funding terror groups

Since 2016 we have identified drugs and arms traffickers in the MENA (e.g., Syria, Libya) and Europe Amsterdam, Manchester, Frankfurt, London, and Copenhagen, initiating money-laundering in/via the Netherlands and the UK into a cigarette tobacco trade company in Dubai and cigarette tobacco factories in Egypt and Morroco. The distribution network specializes in hookah tobacco (Sheesha, Tabaco) for shisha lounges in Europe and Africa.

Bitcoin fraud

Fake Bitcoin Exchanges, Bitcoin Ponzi Schemes, Bitcoin Fake Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Old School Scam, Bitcoin Malware, Bitcoin Pump-and-Dump Scams.

SolarWinds





Just as SolarWind's business growth was incredible, the World's most sophisticated hack is BigTech facilitated by Western intelligence services. 2021 active [..] 



Industries of interests



The geopolitical favorites Nanotech, Biotech, and Satellites


Nanotechnology
In 2007 Nanotechnology was identified as an industry with geopolitical significance. The initial reason was that in 2005 it became clear that nanotechnology could enable the crossing of the blood-brain barrier for (besides military) medical purposes. Which regular medicine could not.

Satellites

A proliferated low-Earth orbit constellation comprised of hundreds of satellites capable of detecting and tracking. SpaceX will locate their Starlink ground stations within Google data center properties. Google Cloud and SpaceX this week announced a new partnership. The target speed for Starlink was 1Gbs, risen to 10Gbs recently. Man portables will bring broadband speeds to any location in the wilderness. The first Starlink satellites launched to polar orbit are equipped with laser crosslinks, and all Starlink satellites launched next year will be fitted with laser inter-satellite links.

The Russian vaccine works.

Here is why. In 2017 the UK lab weaponized the original corona class virus. Russians stole a sample while it was in transit to a site near Liverpool. Once received, Biopreparat went straight into vaccine making cycle. Russia had the Covid-19 vaccine in the post-clinical trials stage in August 2019. This item comes as is.

The lithium triangle - South America

 It is found mainly in the brines of high-altitude salt deserts in the mountains of Chile, Argentina, and especially Bolivia ("the lithium triangle"), and even in Tibet, the "salars". But also in solid form in certain minerals extracted from mines, particularly in Australia. It is essential for the transition from petrol cars to electric vehicles. Therefore, it has become a more critical issue than oil in the context of the Paris Agreements supposed to combat global warming.

Hypersonic weapons break all the rules of the missile defense game.

With speeds surpassing Mach 5 and the ability to maneuver mid-flight, hypersonic weapons defy the missile defense status quo, potentially making the United States' current defenses obsolete. China and Russia are vigorously pursuing hypersonic weapons, and the United States is desperate to neutralize them.

It will take more time before hypersonic missile systems and directed energy weapons have a place in the global weapons market. Current growth markets still are robotics, drones, supersonic missiles, and ground-to-air systems.





Gain of Function Virus Research BSL-4




We are morally indefensible and absolutely necessary."

Gain of Function lab experiments in a BSL-4 lab involves modifying coronavirus genomes "to give the viruses new properties, such as the ability to infect a new host species or transmit from one host to another more easily."

Classified military platforms

Research is categorized, limiting a researcher's sight on the (military) use of their results while the risk of Bioweapons and Bioterror emanating from their work is very real.

The Naïve Scientist – a conversation

"it is not something we do virology control, and we don't have medication. All of that is downstream."

"After three decades, I know my job, which is science! I don't know what they do when the formulas leave the lab. None of us do."

Q: Look, you can't be that naïve? Your recipes metastasize into other government programs cooperating at home and abroad!

"All the work, all those tests, the burn rates, dosage panels, tissue stress. That is us tuning chemistry. We don't fabricate anything—that happens downstream."

"You need a live virus to seed adhesion. Cultures are highly reactive. You have to process on-site, and that is somewhere else."

"With our gain of function research on coronaviruses, we gave these people a Ferrari, but they treat it like a lawnmower."

"how many people even understand this work, let alone have the will to pursue it."

Q: People talk about this stuff like they read it in a book. They don't fear because of complete ignorance.[..]





The Middle East



The Islamic State - ISIS - Comes To You!



(August 17, 2014, Ultrascan Humint Alerts)

Attacking three Shiite countries that appear to be at war with the West is impossible. Otherwise, Syria would have been flattened already. ISIS became the cancer that eroded the three from within. al-Maliki's requests for help against insurgencies eventually led him to Iran, which was not to the liking of the US. ISIS toppled al Maliki (too) fast.

IS established presence and fear

During a meeting in February 2013, a few months before ISIS came to life by claiming its caliphate, planners and leaders of Al Qaeda (a.k.a. Khorasan group) decided to revive terror threats in the West with the knife, this time initiated from the desert. Almost daily, the public would see beheadings and stabbings. . 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED

The fight by ISIS was with the Shiites in Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Most weapons were seized from the Iraq army, the money paid to fighters and mercenaries was taken from the central bank. The Jihadi from elsewhere flocked to ISIS because they believed the Islamic State would give them the home and honorable fight they lacked at home. They were uncontrollable "enjoying" phase one of the Al Qaeda GSI III doctrine, establishing presence and fear by indiscriminately killing.

Islamic State Loss of Purpose

By changing both Syria as well as the relation between Iran and Iraq when removing the Shiite Al Maliki, the Islamic State, and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi (deceased 20191026), the butcher from Quantanamo served their main purpose. Because Baghdadi and his IS have not been addressed by military action, he seemingly became an influential force and started to believe his own success story. Reality is different; where IS fighters are concentrated, any modern army could silently squash them in hours, leaving an empty space in some people's minds and hearts, wondering where they've gone.

Droning them softly

Refugee streams, the unexpected humanitarian disaster engulfing the Yazidi minority, and murdering American citizens are not just collateral effects of Baghdadi's IS but also the 'obvious reason' for the US to slowly drone ISIS into withdrawal. Both the US as well as the EU send aid to refugees and arms to "Kurdistan" to enable a Kurdish 'defense against ISIS' or ..... their de-facto still growing Kurdish (oil) state.

The next big purpose

Attacks on (IS) the Islamic State and its leader Baghdadi (deceased 20191026) emphasized the loss of immediate (counter Shiite) purpose. What will they do? Where will these fighters go? How will their international "movement" react? What's the following big purpose?

Israel - Palestine

Motivation by Event - With today's overall picture of Hamas killing a few Israeli (soldiers) and the Israeli army killing many elderly, women, and children, Palestinian brothers and sisters in distress have become the next purpose of The Islamic State - IS.

"This gives The Islamic State the largest motivational podium possible. Channeling its hatred directly to your doorstep via the global support movement of Hamas, Fatah, and Jihad recruiters in every civil rights organization and university in your neighborhood. Right under your nose (!?).". 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED

Israel attacked from all sides!

(August 17, 2014, Ultrascan Humint Alerts)

All current Palestinian areas and refugee camps in the surrounding countries, Gaza, west bank, south Lebanon, Syria, Jordan, and the Sinai, are becoming platforms for attacks on Israel, eventually leading to a larger area necessary for the two-state solution.

In the early stages, Israeli defense readiness is strategically limited. Its allies, including the USA, will relapse into the usual political dilly-dally and "seem" unwilling to support aggressive steps.

"When Israel is massively attacked, the Middle East will explode. Nineteen states will realize The Islamic Jihad is an uncontrollable threat undermining all of them, including the usual suspects of supporting the fight for a Caliphate. Forget about an individual or coordinated effort. No Arab country can move decisively. The problem can only be solved by US military action and reshaping of the Middle East. Say goodbye to Sykes-Picot borders."

The Israeli defense is well prepared for capabilities and tactics aligned with the mission of its enemies but not for the scope aligned with the long-term Islamic State vision. 2021 active [..] UNDISCLOSED


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