Iran, Sanctions Lifted Risky Business

Results of Diplomacy Offset Against (Oil) Prices

Results of Diplomacy Offset Against (Oil) Prices

For president Rouhani, sanctions relief as result of the P5+1 negotiations were crucial element of his political promise to improve life of Iranians. But with the lower oil price around $40, the partially lifted sanctions do not make a difference, nor will it change the 'Good Guy Bad Guy' status between president Hassan Rouhani and the supreme leader Ali Khamenei. 

president Hassan Rouhani and the supreme leader Ali Khamenei

The only partially lifted sanctions limit trade with the US and Asia. That steers Iran initially towards Europe for unblocked assets, necessary funding and economic growth. 

Many European, Asian and a few American companies rushed into the Iranian market after the Geneva accords.

Business with Iran was promoted when multinationals from Europe and Asia committed billions to investments in long term strategic industries. Those deals signaled a new page in the history of Iran. In the mainstream media it seemed as if Iran suddenly became an acceptable business risk.

In reality, even after the Iran deal business is risky, because it is a nuclear cooperation deal which includes many circumstantial requirements. What big companies view as an acceptable business risk, still is an unacceptable short term risk.


A limited number of key prohibitions still apply. These include:

1. A prior authorisation will be required for business which direct or indirect benefits the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. (IRGC)

2. Financial institutions are still prohibited from supplying SWIFT services until Transition Day in 2023.


Banking restrictions

Businesses, which view Iran as a target economy are frustrated by the absence of banking facilities. Even though Iran agreed to the stipulations that Financial institutions are still prohibited from supplying SWIFT services, Iran says the West is failing to implement its side of the deal by not providing banking and insurance provisions to facilitate trade with Iran. For example, virtually none of the 500 million pound line of credit for Iran by the UK Department for International Trade’s has been used.

Read more: about Iran Fraud & Scams Hide Violation of Sanctions


Iran is a state sponsor of terrorism. Since 2008, intelligence and AML operations focused on the financial ties of Iran with the Taliban and the Hezbollah money laundering service that were and now again are a vital part of its strategy for Hezbollah and Hamas. Trade promotions and lifted financial sanctions in Europe increased that threat significantly. 

'If provoked (!?) the US will attack Iran from Iraq'

Biden - Iran has a nuclear weapon and JCPOA is dead

A video clip surfaced on the internet - Tuesday 20 December 2022

Video surfaces of Biden saying the Iran nuclear deal is ‘dead’; White House doesn’t deny.

Clip from November shows US president telling activists who pulled him aside in California that he won't declare publicly that deal is dead.

"But they do have a nuclear weapon, that they'll represent"

Iran IRGC - Lebanon and Syria

Alert October 03 2022

Ongoing Intelligence, Surveillance, Counter Surveillance HUMINT and AML research revealed: Travel Patterns, Funding, Support, Facilitators for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria.

See Map

Iran IRGC - Alert Sept 2022 - Ongoing Intelligence, Surveillance, Counter Surveillance - HUMINT and AML research revealed Travel Patterns, Funding, Support, Facilitators for Hezbollah in Lebanon and Syria
The greater Khorasan

For Iran and Pakistan the threat of the Khorasan Province branch is active across the whole of Afghanistan plus the adjacent parts of Pakistan, Iran and the countries in Central Asia. Al Qaeda's ISIS strategy exploits and reinforces ethnic and political divides, sow division and discord inside Iran.

January 2020 - Alert!

Spymaster Qasem Soleimani

Iran 2020 - Alert!

It's impossible to overstate the significance of General Qasem Soleimani's killing!

Taking out the spymaster who was successfully building an empire across the shiite crescent.

For Iran this means a long term degrading of a strategic capability.

General Soleimani was the real boss of Hezbollah.
With his death Iran not just lost control over its international organized crime, money laundering and terrorism organization.

General Esmail Ghaani - New spymaster QUD Force Iran IRGC

The roots with Hezbollah run deeper than that. His death is disrupting their global operations and across the region.

General Esmail Ghaani of Quds Force is the new spymaster. With as specialty counter intelligence.
His remit was east of Iran like Afghanistan and Pakistan where he gained influence with the Taliban and al Qaeda (affiliates).

Threats from Iran are usually veiled by proxies.

The people of Iran were emotionally raided by the killing of General Soleimani.

Possible Head of State assassination plot - Trunp

Therefore revenge attacks will only be effective if straightforward, within the military realm and/or in any way establish...



falls in that category and within Iran's capabilities

Ali Khamenei - Supreme Leader of Iran

The USA will relapse into the usual political dilly-dally!

"Seemingly" unwilling to support aggressive steps when necessary.

By doing so, it is leaving its allies in the Middle East and western Europe at their own peril!

An opportunity for aggressors to show off their most devastating and geopolitically disruptive weapons.

The damage will be done and to (avoid or) revenge such attacks by Iran, a topple of their government is in the intelligence cards.


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